How Likely is That?

Synopsis: This is a video recording of a talk in the LMS Popular Lectures given by Dr Haigh of Sussex University, in which he explored six scenarios relating to probability. The first was called ‘Numbers We Meet’, which was a discussion of the relevance of Benford’s Law (1937) regarding the distribution of first significant digits following a log pattern in some data types. For the mathematical historians there was a mention of Simon Newcombe’s unsung prior discovery of this effect in 1880, and of T.P. Hill’s application of it for the social scientists. It also included advice on how to massage expenses or tax return figures to make them look realistic.

The next five scenarios ranged across a broad spectrum of entertaining probability problems from coin tossing through shared birthdates and guessing games. HDr Haigh’s logical explanations for the surprising and often paradoxical solutions drew on the importance of precise definition of any given problem, Bertrand’s Paradox, the Law of Averages and William Feller. He concluded his lecture with a quick reference to his new book ‘Taking Chances - Winning with Probability’.
Language: English
Country: Great Britain
Year of release: 2006
Year of production: 2006
Subjects: Mathematics
Keywords: probability theory

Name: London Mathematical Society
Email: lms@lms.ac.uk
Web: http://www.lms.ac.uk/ External site opens in new window
Phone: 020 7637 3686
Fax: 020 7323 3655
Address: De Morgan House
57-58 Russell Square
London
WC1B 4HS
Notes: Video recordings of twice-yearly LMS Popular Lectures, which aim to present exciting topics and interesting applications to anyone with a serious interest in mathematics such as sixth form and university students. Recent lectures are for sale on DVD and older ones for hire on video.

This record has been viewed 315 times.